How energy security is changing the climate narrative

There is a new reason to invest in renewables

Maire Berkeley, Senior editor

Conversations around climate action and the energy transition have typically focused on reducing emissions and meeting environmental targets. But energy security is changing the narrative: clean energy is becoming a way to strengthen economic and national resilience.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines energy security as “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”. And as conflict in Europe and the Middle East disrupts supply chains and AI use increases demand for electricity, energy security is under threat.

In response, governments and businesses are reconsidering their energy systems. Clean energy is increasingly attractive because it can reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels. In DNV research, for instance, 79 per cent of surveyed energy professionals say that expanding renewable capacity enhances energy security.

So November’s United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, comes at a critical time. But how is security changing the energy conversation ahead of the meeting?

Beyond the energy trilemma

According to the World Energy Council, a healthy energy system is secure, equitable and sustainable. But these three priorities often compete, and the challenge of balancing them is known as the “energy trilemma”. Now, this is changing: when one of the three priorities is threatened, it can also put pressure on the other two.

Volatile fossil fuel prices have led to surging energy costs that are holding back economic growth. For example, the OECD predicts that if energy prices follow current levels on the futures market and there is “progress towards a negotiated and durable peace agreement”, global growth will decline from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.8 per cent in 2026 before rising to 3.1 per cent in 2027.

The unsettled geopolitical environment also highlights overreliance on fossil fuel imports. About 80 per cent of the global population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels, which puts them at risk of shortages during times of crisis and supply chain disruption. Before the 2026 conflict, about 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil travelled through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict severely disrupted global energy supply.

Governments recognise that transitioning to renewables can reduce their dependence on energy imports and their exposure to supply disruption. In the UK, the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan seeks to accelerate production of domestic renewable energy to safeguard the country’s future resilience. Other countries are taking similar approaches, and renewables-powered electricity is set to overtake coal-powered output in 2026.

How to future-proof renewables infrastructure

But building renewables capacity in isolation is not enough, because if the infrastructure around it fails there is still an energy security problem. Over 40 per cent of European distribution grids are more than 40 years old, so governments and businesses will have to address this to integrate renewable energy and improve overall efficiency and performance.

Digital technology can also help to make renewable energy infrastructure more resilient. AI, for instance, might put pressure on energy systems by increasing demand for electricity, but it could also help to improve the case for renewables. It can analyse real-time weather data alongside historical data to forecast and optimise output from renewable energy sources. And using it in predictive maintenance can help to reduce outages by proactively resolving potential problems before they occur. This can extend the operational life of infrastructure.

Continuing the conversation at COP31

Accelerating the shift from climate ambition to implementation is a stated priority of COP31. Discussions in Turkey will shape how countries invest in infrastructure, new technologies and resilient energy systems in the coming years.

Businesses must pay close attention to how the dialogue develops. Any policy priorities, investment momentum and technology initiatives highlighted at COP31 will influence strategic decision-making long after the end of the conference. For brand and marketing leaders preparing for COP31, the challenge is to be both visible and valuable. By creating timely, evidence-based thought leadership about how to improve energy security, they can strengthen their brands’ authority on this crucial subject and influence important audiences.

Are you planning thought leadership or a brand campaign for COP31? Get in touch with our team of experts and we will help you plan, design or create a thought leadership programme that stands out from the crowd.